USATSI_7508145_160885884_lowres

Where Have All The Good (3rd Period) Times Gone? Or Have They?

Last night added to the theme that the Hawks are having serious 3rd period woes. They once again coughed up a two-goal lead to a team they shouldn’t be coughing up a two-goal lead too, and needed the shootout to bail them out again. Some have begun to really worry, while some have brushed it off as just October kinks and natural hiccups as the Hawks slowly move through the gears early in the year. But I wanted to go through these so-called collapses and see if we can’t get to the nuts and bolts and find out if it’s a trend or something more unlucky or detailed than that.

Let’s throw out the opener against the Caps, as that was more due to the lethal Washington power play (which is looking more and more like the only time they care). Essentially, we’re talking about home to Tampa, at St. Louis, at Carolina, and last night. Now, four games doesn’t really signal a trend totally, but it’s what we’ve got.

Before we start, some we’ll suggest the home game to Buffalo as well, and the only reason that two-goal lead didn’t evaporate was the complete incompetence of the Sabres offense. True, but that was the second of a back-to-back and the legs could have been feeling it.

Tampa – An icing call forces Marcus Kruger to take a draw against Stamkos, who wins it cleanly obviously and St. Louis backhands a rebound home after beating a couple fourth-liners to the net. Keith and Seabrook on the ice and Keith doesn’t get to the rebound, though it really did shoot out away from him.

Second goal was on the power play off a Toews hi-sticking goal where Purcell picked up a loose puck.

Hawks outshoot the Lightning 12-8 in the 3rd. Fenwick (Extra skater doesn’t do Corsi by period) was also 20-14 for the Hawks.

@St. Louis – You know the story here. Terrible pinch in last minute by Seabrook, Steen takes advantage. Shots are 7-7 in the 3rd, Fenwick 11-10 for the Blues.

@Carolina – First goal in 3rd is caused when Sharp comes over too far from his wing, opening up Staal for a shot and Semin beats Handzus to the net. Second is off turnover from Nordstrom and Rozsival before Rozie decides to block out Crow completely. Shots are 11-10 for Carolina and Fenwick is 14 apiece.

@Florida – Fresh in the minds now. The Hawks top line and top defensive pair don’t exactly shot TWTW and the Panthers are able to string together a gorgeous passing play to get back in it. Then Keith turnover gifts Kulikov the equalizer. Shots in 3rd are 7-6 for Florida and Fenwick is 12-9 for Panthers.

So what are some of the themes we are seeing here? One is that the Hawks aren’t exactly getting shelled in the 3rd period. What is happening is their going from dominating to equal, and a small shift in that direction is only natural when a team is trailing and has to go for broke.

Another? Keith and Seabrook seem to be on the ice for a lot of it. Some of it is bad luck, as it could be argued that Martin St. Louis goal was. But really, the two guys the Hawks trust most to not let leads slip away are on the ice when leads are slipping away.Throw in mistakes from Toews and Sharp in this, and while that’s not good it’s not something that’s going to be a season-long problem.

There are other factors, of course. We’ve talked at length how the wonky ice-time distribution might have fatigued Keith and Seabrook, along with the other top-end players. So there’s that.

Another is that the Hawks aren’t putting teams away before the 3rd, leaving them in that bloop-and-a-blast range. Why’s that? Well, Sharp and Shaw have one goal between them. It’s hard to believe, but Shaw has been a 20-goal a season pace in his two half-seasons with the Hawks. His goals are significant enough that the Hawks miss them. He won’t stay goalless forever, and Sharp won’t be stuck on 1 for long either.

And honestly, Hossa and Toews only have three each. A goal every three games is not what we’ve come to expect from them, and when their pace picks up the Hawks’ will too. We can look at the secondary scoring, but Bickell has two, Pirri two, Nordstrom got one, Smith got one, Handzus has one, and you wouldn’t expect these guys to score at much higher of a rate than that.

Leddy and Keith also haven’t scored, and it wouldn’t be ridiculous to expect around 10 from each of them. So there’s just things that haven’t lit up yet that are going to.

People also need to remember that the Hawks went through a phase of not great with leads early last season, but either held on or got a point in a shootout and thus masked it with The Streak To The Sea. Then, the Blues, Jackets, Detroit, Minnesota, Calgary, Anaheim, Vancouver were able to nearly come back or actually did overcome deficits in the 3rd period in January and February. This isn’t new, and it’s usually something that gets ironed out when it has to.

So let’s just ease this big rig down, hmmm?

  • Stone Cutter

    Yep, shooting 7.9% through 9 games. Last 3 seasons that number ended up being 10%, 9.3%, and 9.6%. It will progress more towards those numbers.

    • BeverlyBrewmaster

      This times ten. You’ve got Toews at 12.5% (career 15.1%), Hossa at 8.3% (career 12.8%) and Sharp at 2.9% (!) (career 11.9%). Either they’ve all forgotten how to snipe or the goals will start to come soon.
      Also, re: Keith and Seabrook, I would note that if they’re carrying the majority of 3rd period minutes (and especially if they’re getting most of the defensive zone starts) you’d expect them to be on the ice for most of these third-period “collapses” regardless of whether they’re to blame. Not saying they’re off the hook, but just that it *could* be more correlation rather than causation.

      • Z-man19

        Actually they aren’t, at least in last night’s game. Both had by far their lowest TOI in the 3rd period. Someone else will have to get you the fancier stats, ie zone starts.

        • BeverlyBrewmaster

          Interesting. Thanks for doing the leg work. Looking up shooting percentages was all the research I was willing to do today.

  • Z-man19

    And I was just getting ready to cut bait, abandon ship, raise the white flag and bid hope farewell. Fuck it, I’ll stick it out another game or two but this shit better stop!!!!

    • 1benmenno

      You forgot “walk the plank” and “jump off ledge.”

      • Z-man19

        Not a fan of heights, those aren’t options in my PANIC repertoire

        • 1benmenno

          You cut bait when you panic?

          • Z-man19

            it’s very soothing, got my Ginsu knives and some lutefisk

          • 1benmenno

            I still haven’t screwed up the courage to cook the lutefisk I was given last summer. I read that, once cooked, it has a “jello-like consistency.” Somehow that doesn’t turn me on.

          • Z-man19

            Why would you think we want to know what turns you on? I’ve heard it’s super tasty so you should definitely try it

    • Roy Batty

      “…shit or get off the pot”

  • QCBlackhawk

    http://i.imgur.com/35ziAl7.jpg

    I agree with the majority of the points here, but I’m not sure we should classify Bicks as secondary with how much we’re paying him. Like Toews said, time to step it up.

    • birdhead

      Players don’t magically get more talent cos you’re paying them more. Bicks isn’t going to be what he was in the playoffs in the regular season just because Stan paid him for the playoffs; he’s going to continue to be what he has been, a third liner.

      • QCBlackhawk

        I’m not talking about magically getting anything, I’m talking about living up to the level of play he has displayed previously and is now getting paid for.

        • birdhead

          You mean his play in the best 20 games of his career, as opposed to his play in the other 200?

          • QCBlackhawk

            Well to be fair he was doing pretty well during the regular season, too. All goes back to busting his ass in Euroland during the lockout according to him and the press.

          • birdhead

            That might be true, but having a three-month fitness advantage on most of the rest of the league is (hopefully) not a situation that will repeat anytime soon. I don’t mean this as a criticism of Bicks particularly, but even with Toews and Kane I just don’t see why we’re expecting him to replicate his best-ever numbers at age 28. OK, he hasn’t had a lot of time in the league, but he’s no spring chicken; I just tend not to believe that he suddenly discovered an extra gear that he can access all the time.

          • http://www.lotsofbutterplease.com/ I am not Chico Maki

            I agree. It’s awfully rare that a player at his stage simply becomes a scorer. Stan was in the weird position almost of having to sign him, but I really thought the contract was a bit foolish. I compared it to Joel Ward at the time. It was a really similar situation, a power forward comes alive in the playoffs in a contract year. Bam. Hello, free market.

            I can’t say I’m really upset that Bicks is here at 4 million, but I also hold out very little hope that he plays up to that number over the next couple of seasons.

          • QCBlackhawk

            Hopefully the cap just goes through the roof so I can stop feeling bad about how much money we’re throwing at him.

          • Crisisinthewoods

            Well their projecting an increase possibly up to 70 million next year based on the 5 outdoor games plus the increased income from a full 82 game season… and then the next year they’re going to have even more money potential from that ‘World Cup’ and ‘Champions League’ experiment…. so we’ll see. If everything the NHL wants to happen pans out, you could see the cap going sky-high and 4 million becoming the baseline salary for the third-line player.

          • bizarrohairhelmet

            Being the forerunners is good, right? right?

          • mad-hatter

            The burgeoning cap is probably the only reason he got so much money in the first place. I agree with Chico: Stan was most likely cornered into giving Bicks that contract, and it could have been worse.

          • QCBlackhawk

            Yup, could have been Crawford’s ;)

            I KEED.

          • http://www.lotsofbutterplease.com/ I am not Chico Maki

            You agree with Not Chico.

          • mad-hatter

            Right. So I don’t agree with Chico.

          • Why

            Well, you don’t not agree with Chico. That’s undecided.

          • QCBlackhawk

            Ow.

          • birdhead

            this sums up my feelings about it, for sure.

          • Why

            It’s the stride, acceleration and quick changes of direction that look better to me. I don’t think it’s a fitness thing, I think it’s a technique thing.

          • http://www.lotsofbutterplease.com/ I am not Chico Maki

            He does look stronger in Q’s “puck area,” sure, and more responsible, more physical. But so does Brookbank. Heh. Na, I know what you’re saying.

          • VerStig

            Is that why Oduya isn’t as good as last year? No Thai hockey championships?

          • http://www.lotsofbutterplease.com/ I am not Chico Maki

            I bet even the Thai players were asking why his name was Johnny.

          • lizmcneill

            why wouldn’t his name be Johnny?

          • http://www.lotsofbutterplease.com/ I am not Chico Maki

            No crazy weird reason, just a kinda unusual name for a Swede. Jan maybe? Do they pronounce it Yawney there?

          • lizmcneill

            Johan. and yeah, j = y, so it should be Yalmarson and Yoakim.

          • mad-hatter

            Do we know if his legal name is actually Johan? He could just have an American name.

          • lizmcneill

            His father was Kenyan, so it could well be John/Johnny rather than the Swedish version.

          • birdhead

            I just wikipedia’d him. Apparently his full name is David Johnny Oduya. THE MORE YOU KNOW.

          • http://www.lotsofbutterplease.com/ I am not Chico Maki

            I knew the j=y generally, but I wasn’t sure about Oduya’s specific case.

          • Z-man19

            Trent Yawney?

          • Crisisinthewoods

            Personally, I think Bickell proved that he can ‘play up’ to his line-mates.

            In the first 200 games of his career he was rarely (if ever) given time with DDN. He showed that his skillset, when applied, could be used to open up space for the other two and even assert himself as a finisher.

            I think dropping him down to the third line to send a message like ‘hey, you’re getting paid now, we expect more from you’ is fine, but the message eventually has to end and another chance given. Because he’s not the kind of player that’s going to single-handedly elevate the third line, he’s the kind of player that can complement a powerful duo on the top line. He needs to be given the chance to play with great players again to actually show he got the message.

          • QCBlackhawk

            The third line was bumslaying all day long last year while he was on it with Saad up top. I still have no problems with actively rotating him and Saad depending on what we need against whichever team we’re playing. Saad against teams like the Sharks or Edmonton where we need his speed up there, and Bicks against teams like Boston with defensive behemoths where we need the net presence and size on the forecheck.

          • Crisisinthewoods

            Our third line last year was beast, but I don’t think Bickell was playing at the same level on the third line during the regular season as he was on the top line with Toews and Kane in the playoffs.

            I will fully admit that I have no quantitative metrics to base that conclusion on at the moment, I’m going purely on stat-sheet output and the eye-test,

          • mad-hatter

            The third line last year was helped by the fact they were against other team’s fourth lines. They were bumslaying because that’s who they were against: bums.

          • QCBlackhawk

            Fair assessment, but that’s also kind of my point with the swing idea is that we have 2 guys in slightly different roles that can hang on the top line, and whoever swing down to the third should be beating the piss out of who they’re up against.

          • birdhead

            How many games did he play with DDN in the playoffs and for how many was he on a different line? Not a snarky question really, I just don’t remember that well.

            I guess my ultimate question would be, if he’s not good enough to be good by himself, wouldn’t Saad on that wing make it even more productive? (Although the counterargument there is that it’s better to have three strong lines than two, if you think Saad can make the third line better in a way Bickell can’t. Which might be true, IDK.)

          • Crisisinthewoods

            That is the argument I would personally make, because I prefer a degree of balance through the lineup.

            Some people really like overloading the top two lines and letting them pile on points, while leaving the bottom two just decent enough to not screw up.

            Matter of preference I guess. Personally, I think Bickell helped open a TON of space on that top line for Kane Toews by using his size (forecheck, hitting, etc). You could actually see Chara looking over his shoulder for Bickell at points while he was simultaneously trying to battle Toews in the paint.

          • birdhead

            I agree with you when it comes to liking having three balanced lines. I think it just depends what they do, where. But in the early go, I hadn’t been all that impressed with Bicks-Toews-Kane, and I don’t mind seeing it shuffled around a bit.

          • mad-hatter

            I’m horribly biased in this but a Bickell-Kruger-Shaw line doesn’t strike me as “just decent enough not to screw up” at all. They have two goals in two games even though they’ve been iced against top lines, and could get more once Shaw starts potting some. I’d imagine Kruger’s own point totals will increase as well.

            I’m also going to nitpick on the idea that creating a balanced line up is equal to just splitting up the top scorers (and not just DDN, but also Saad, Sharp, and Hossa), because that assumes that Toews would still have gotten 23 goals last year even if he had Bollig and Frolik on his wings. While other players may get those extra ten points working with Kane, it comes at the expense of Kane losing those points he would have gotten with Hossa. So overall these things may just be a wash.

          • birdhead

            gentle reminder that patrick kane had a career year last year. (I know, he was shooting at some ridiculous number, but still.)

          • mad-hatter

            I KNOW god argument ruiner. But still, he could have had more if Sharp didn’t hit posts and Bolland had a working groin.

          • mad-hatter

            and, er, I meant Kane’s the argument ruiner, not you.

          • birdhead

            oh, he’s the worst. :)

          • Crisisinthewoods

            Sorry, I wasn’t trying to suggest that all our best point producers should be spread up and down the line up. You’re not going to hear me arguing for Sharp or Kane or Hossa on the third or fourth lines just for the sake of balance.

            I’m more interested in ensuring a good complement of skill-sets on each line. The Hawks – through luck and great management – are blessed with a collection of players that can ‘wear many hats’ to various degrees:

            Toews: Playmaker, finisher and forechecker
            Hossa: Playmaker, finisher and forechecker
            Kane: Playmaker, finisher
            Sharp: Finisher, playmaker
            Saad: Forechecker, finisher
            Bickell: Forechecker, finisher(? TBD, need more consistency to be sure)

            Adding Bickell to the top line adds a forechecking and hitting presence that opens up more space for Kane and Toews to focus on play-making and finishing.

            That free’s up Hossa for the second line to contribute his forechecking (and play-making, and finishing), to give Pirri and Sharp more room to play-make and finish.

            That leaves Saad free to elevate the third line with his forechecking and finishing abilities, and his play-making is probably going to improve with time as well.

            I’m not saying Bickell is terrible on the 3rd line, I just think Saad does more to elevate that line, while Bickell has proven that he can ‘play up’ to the DDN combo.

            None of these combos need be locked in place. I think different people can be moved up and down based on their play at the time. But if Q is going to juggle lines, I do which he would focus on ensuring a complement of skills, rather than overloading one line with forecheckers, leaving another line without any forechecking, and on down the line.

          • mad-hatter

            Oh, well then I’m on board with everything you just said, and it’s this reasoning that makes me really dislike Saad-Toews-Hossa.

          • Why

            I very much agree with this. It goes back to those (Stan? Scotty?) quotes on role players. Some guys have roles that are harder to fill.

            Now, Chicago might be deep enough to actually roll lines without much of a drop off from the top end guys. But generally speaking, I think you’re right.

          • lizmcneill

            Bicks’ career sh%:12.3

            Bicks’ sh% during the playoffs: 18.4

            I seriously doubt he has turned into a Stamkos-level sniper.

          • Crisisinthewoods

            Shooting percentage really doesn’t tell me anything, because we don’t know if he was scoring goals from positions he would normally miss from (ie, just more accurate due to luck/happenstance), or if he was being set-up better in more prime areas by playing with better line-mates, taking advantage of rebounds they created, etc

            I agree that what we saw from Bickell in the playoffs is likely his ceiling as far as impact and production, but I’m not yet completely convinced it was a statistical anomaly and not a scenario that can be recreated to some degree.

          • birdhead

            He shot better on that line than Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews have over their career. No matter how well he’s being set up, or by whom, that doesn’t strike me as his true talent level.

          • Why

            If Bicks is playing a big, physical game with that wrist/snap shot (never sure what we’re supposed to call that, no one really sweeps the puck anymore), he’s going to bury a lot of chances. Franzen’s been a double digit shooting percentage guy for 5-7 years now, and it’s not because he has a better shot than Zetterberg.

            I’m not hung up on shooting percentage (Bicks firing more shots wouldn’t be a bad thing and would drop his percentage) but I wouldn’t be surprised to see his percentage stay on the high side. I very, very strongly doubt 18%, but he doesn’t need to shoot that high of a percentage to be a 25-30 goal guy.

          • birdhead

            Well, 12 is double-digits …

          • birdhead

            the point of which glib suggestion is, sure, I can see him sustaining a relatively high sh% like 12% – whjich he’s had even on the third line -, but the period we’re talking about, the period in which he got *paid*, was at that 18% level that neither you nor I think is likely to continue.

          • Why

            Yep. But I don’t think anyone is paying Bickell that Stamkos money either. 4 million is a lot for a guy who is just coming into his own. But it’s Bozak/Oshie/Stafford/Franzen money that they’re paying until the guy turns 31.

          • birdhead

            Bicks has .18 goals per game and .41 points per game.
            Oshie has .24 gpg and .67 ppg.
            Bozak: .22, .56
            Stafford: .27, .60
            Franzen: .32, .60

            Bozak is the best comparator there and I think it’s pretty widely agreed that he is pretty overpaid. No? Oshie, Stafford and Franzen are laughable comparisons.

          • Why

            Any possibility that Bicks has improved since his trip to Sweden?

          • birdhead

            I don’t know, how do you think he’s been playing this season?

          • Why

            Started off trying to do too much. Looks like he’s finding his stride. I’ll put it to you this way, if you think .22 goals per game is Bickell’s true talent level, that would have you projecting him to score 18 goals this year, assuming he doesn’t get injured. You’d have a 50% chance of being right guessing higher or lower. Would you want the over or the under on that number?

          • birdhead

            Can I take “somewhere between 15 and 21″? Because I think he scores somewhere between 15 and 21. But I’d love to see him score 30.

          • Why

            Nope. The question’s on true goal scoring talent. You’re using his career averages as the levels we should use. I think he’s better than his career averages indicate. And if we’re really going to be a stickler for numbers, he’s already played nine games and had two goals so if he scored at that .22 average for the rest of the year, the expected number of goals would still be 18.

          • birdhead

            yes, but random shit happens. He could score 20 goals this season and 16 next year. If he scores 19 goals this year, which will take his career average up to an exciting .20, am I wrong about his contract? He scored 17 goals in 78 games in 2010-11, the next year he scored 9 in 71.

            But fine, I take the under.

          • QCBlackhawk

            It would have been even larger if he could have hit the 2+ wide open nets he had earlier. I think he has the potential to do a lot better, it just hasn’t clicked yet, and we kind of need it to.

          • zacked

            He could turn into a Brunette-level garbage collector, though! (Career 17.7% shooter).

          • steeg of their own

            Yeah, that’s what he’s talking about. To be fair, that’s what Stan paid for, so can’t really throw too many stones there.

  • Country_Bumpkin

    The end is nigh…or something

    • 1benmenno

      The end is the science guy?

      • Accipiter

        Bill is the end.

        • 1benmenno

          The end is Nye.

  • Daze55

    Hope Rozy is back soon. Guess it’s good we’ve been playing Brookbank.

    Chris Kuc
    ‏@ChrisKuc

    #Blackhawks defenseman Michael Kostka out four to six weeks with lower-body injury. Hurt during yesterday’s practice.

    • steeg of their own

      Fuck. I didn’t think Thor could get injured like that. Aren’t Asgardian gods supposed to be immune to the ubiquitous LBI?

      • DesertHawk

        Frost Giants are notorious for low blows.

  • Waylon

    You’re wrong – we need to panic full – stop and make our reservations for jump – off points on the Hancock.

    Signed ,

    Meathead and Johhny – Come – Lately Fan nation

  • Slain

    I pin this down to a a general lack of shits given by the players right now. They will pick it up when they need to, but until then I am cool with getting at least a point in every game but one.

  • Crisisinthewoods

    “and a small shift in that direction is only natural when a team is trailing and has to go for broke.”

    This is a little too close to “the will to win” for my tastes. A team’s desperation (or comparative lack of) is every bit as unquantifiable as a team’s pride, or resolve, or focus, or desire or any other psychological factor.

    If this blog/community wants to start seriously incorporating those kind of intangible elements into the discussion of team performance, ok let’s do that (I’m more than willing, cause I find sports psychology fascinating in of itself), but as most here (including the writers) seem to look down on such thinking and denigrate such arguments with the snarky delivery of acronyms (or purposefully bad english to mock/mimic lower-class or less-educated fans), I think it would be best to just stay away from such vague rationalizing entirely, rather than float it when it suits a particular narrative and look down on it when it’s used as a rationalization for other narratives.

    The points about overworking our top D pair and the relative lack of output from our key contributors are important and well laid out in this article. You’ve actually convinced me that Q’s lineups actually have as much to do with third period collapses as it does with the lack of offense, because some players are getting beaten down physically as they spin their wheels with ineffective line-mates or less-than-ideal skillset combinations, while our top D is getting blown out cause they’re being overused as a safety-blanket to counter the problems the line-combos created in the first place.

    • BeverlyBrewmaster

      I think it’s more about strategies employed when a team is leading/trailing than TWTW (just like how a losing football team will rack up crazy passing yards when the defense is in prevent mode). And I think advanced hockey metrics generally recognize this fact by often isolating stats for tie-game situations only.

    • steeg of their own

      It may be too close to ‘will to win’ for your tastes, but statistically there’s a thing called ‘score effect’ which means that teams that are trailing by one or two entering the third are likely to shell the leading team with shots, and are statistically more likely to score.

      There’s nothing intangible about it. There’s a reason the advanced stats community often only looks at even-strength stats: they want to eliminate the kind of score effect that comes from trailing teams doing exactly what Sam describes.

      This is a really well-known and well-documented phenomenon, there’s no intangibles there. Sam’s talking about what actually happens in hockey games by both the eye test and the numbers.

      • Crisisinthewoods

        Obviously I understand that the gameplan of the opposing team is going to be to shell the other team with shots, but actually wanting to do it, having the talent to do it, and succeeding at it are all different.

        I’m sure Carolina and Tampa and Florida came into the third period with the gameplan of shooting a ton and scoring more goals. Somehow I doubt their gameplan in the first two periods where ‘don’t shoot much, and don’t score many goals’. In the first 40 minutes, the Hawks were more than capable of handling their attack and countering.

        The team trailing doesn’t magically get more talented and the other team doesn’t magically get less talented after the second intermission, so there’s no reason why just because the trailing team WANTS to press more, the team that kept them in check (and dominated) through 40 minutes is suddenly incapable of handling their attack.

        • steeg of their own

          No really. Google ‘hockey score effect’. Talent and gameplan have nothing to do with it. Trailing teams towards the end of the game DO shoot more, leading teams DO get shot on (and percentage-wise, scored on) more.

          You can explain it however you like, but since it’s something that happens, the best a team can do is deal with it.

          • Crisisinthewoods

            I believe you, and I’m sure it’s well-documented.

            I guess it’s more a matter of the ‘why’ behind this well-documented phenomenon that interests me, and the phrasing Sam used in the article which suggests ‘it’s only natural desperate teams play harder and do better’.

            Like I said, I’m all good with bringing intangibles into the discussion of team performance. So long as they’re always welcome, and not simply used when it suits people and disregarded or demeaned when they don’t.

          • Why

            Fair enough on the first paragraph. If that’s your goal, here’s my suggestion: Watch the defencemen of both teams in the third period of a game that isn’t tied. See if they’re looking to put pucks on net or jumping into the rush more (as opposed to playing pucks to the corners, vacating the zone quickly, etc.). Figure out what that will do to shot attempts and whether it will create more odd man rushes the other way.

          • Crisisinthewoods

            Fair enough.

          • VerStig

            I think Why covered the “why” (heh) pretty well in terms of the nuts and bolts… is that what you’re looking for? It’d be difficult to find other stats to explain this other than the splits (i.e., what are the stats when you are up a goal), that’s why we watch the games.

            That said, it would be interesting to mine the play-by-play data to see if there’s anything that jumps out, like defensemen taking more shots or players getting double-shifted or the teams with the lead taking longer between shots, etc.

        • http://www.lotsofbutterplease.com/ I am not Chico Maki

          But this is why, even in the advanced stats world, you more or less dismiss these situations and measure Fenwick, say, when either close or tied … because teams let down or gear up accordingly. It has nothing to do with a team soaking up its talent points in the third period when down, but they tend to press harder against a team that has begun to press less.

          • Why

            I’d recommend everyone listen to Stan’s explanation above too. Pinching defencemen generally mean more shots at one end and higher quality chances at the other.

  • Why

    Agree, especially with everything after “Another thing.” This team has been ok in their own zone and they’re creating two on one’s and three on two’s in the games I’ve seen. Those will be finished at a higher rate with the talent on this team. It’s not panic time. Stan basically explained it before the last St. Louis game (it’s basically what they kick off with):

    http://downloads.blackhawks.nhl.com/podcasts/insider_101713.mp3

  • Waylon

    So the Moore/Bertuzzi trial is finally scheduled – I’m torn on this one, because although Betuzzi’s a dirt bag and should have never been allowed to play again, I’m not sure a civil trial is the way to go here, either.

    • rkeign

      The dirt bag just scored for Scum to bring them back within two goals

  • bizarrohairhelmet

    Look, Dudes and Dudettes, they didn’t name the third period “The Johnny Bag o’ Dicks Period” for nothing.

  • Paul the Fossil

    Time for a bit of simple hockey fun, check this out. The video clips are great. They include the only PP goalie goal, PK goalie goal, and GWG goalie goal yet recorded in the NHL.

    http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/79474/great-moments-in-goalie-goal-scoring-history

    • DesertHawk

      The first one would be against the rules in today’s NHL, no? It’d be awesome to see though.

      Aaaaaand my question was answered two sentences later… read the whole thing… then comment. :sigh:

    • DesertHawk

      Also Emrick’s voice hasn’t changed… like at all.

  • 2883

    Sens running it up against Detroit so far. 2 easy goals.

    • Crisisinthewoods

      I’m not surprised.**

      No way to quantify this, but I’m sure that entire lockerroom wants to prove something to Aldredson.

      ** I mean to say, I’m not surprised that they’re surging out of the gate with a ton of fire. Detroit could still come back to win, but I expected the Sens to start this game with tons of emotion.

      • 2883

        Make it 3-0

        • 2883

          Out goes Gustavsson in comes Howard

        • Crisisinthewoods

          Ok, now I’m just depressed that they’ve scored more than our goals-per-game average in a little over half a period. :(

          But also happy Detroit is losing. So I guess I’ll upgrade my mood to ambivalent.

    • rkeign

      Make that three.Howard run.

      • 2883

        It was Gustavsson in net I think Howard on

      • 2883

        Nevermind you were right.

  • 2883

    ANderson gets lazy and Berthugzi scores on a NHL 94′ style wrapround

    • rkeign

      Watching the replay, I think Anderson was either duped by or didn’t see the drop pass behind his goal and his attention was directed toward the wrong guy to the wrong side of the net. This more so than being lazy, IMO. Also, in 1994 the goal net was deeper and wider, making 2013 style wraparounds much quicker and easier. And thinking about it, with the back of the net closer to his backside, the drop pass was harder for him to spot in his peripheral vision.

      • zacked

        He’s referring to the (best) videogame (of all time).

  • rkeign

    I can’t believe the comedy of errors that is the Cardinals against the Red Sox in Game 1. Only the 2nd inning and they have committed two of the most bonehead mistakes you can make in baseball, dropping the toss ruining a sure inning-ending double play leading to 3 first inning runs; and pitcher and catcher playing I got it/you take it on a easy as hell popup to start the 2nd and now the bases are loaded with only 1 out! Haha

    • DesertHawk

      Cardinals and Red Sox? Swiss league teams?

      • rkeign

        Switched to the World Series at 1st intermission. Good night to be a Chicago sports fan with both the Red Wings and the Cardinals stumbling mightily!

        • DesertHawk

          I just give people a hard time when they post about other sports. Which is admittedly pretty hypocritical, with all my side tracks.

          • rkeign

            I knew I was probably crossing some line, but, hey, it’s the fuckin’ World Series. Anyway, I won’t ever do it again, I promise!

          • DesertHawk

            I ain’t the police. :P

          • rkeign

            Well, then. Now it’s 5-0 with the Cardinals down. I’m loving it! Go Cubs! Win!

      • bizarrohairhelmet

        St. Louis & Boston. The dubstep must be strong in this one. How much bombing bullshit is getting brought up?

  • MattC86

    John Scott elbows Loui Eriksson, the Sabres should just be folded. Yuck.

    • Hawkeytalk

      that was a very ugly hit, the kind that the league is supposed to be getting rid of. Did you see Milbury lose his mind after the game? Wow.

    • AMR

      Just think he played for the hawks for nearly two seasons. I still can’t believe StanBow got a draft pick for him

    • lizmcneill

      I hope they fail at tanking and get like a #5 pick for the next 5 years and they all bust.

      • zacked

        Aww be nice. Buffalo needs some love. And a new management team.

  • bizarrohairhelmet

    The problem was that he didn’t know where to put his shoes…

    http://blogs.canoe.ca/slam/hockey/ex-owner-spano-offered-former-islanders-gm-milbury-group-sex/

    oh, mind bleach, I miss you so…

    • ahnfire

      ew. I just saw the link address and I refuse to click it.

      • bizarrohairhelmet

        you’re doing yourself a disservice by not doing yourself a desservice.

  • cliffkoroll

    What’s Crawford’s 3rd period sv%?

    • Z-man19

      I don’t know but his Saturday sv% kicks ass

  • Charles Miller

    #1 D pair is minus 5; #2 D pair is plus 13. I just think the #1 pair doesn’t focus as hard or as long in the regular season.
    Which may be an affliction of much of the Hawks. They seem content with two goal leads. As has been the case since 2010, they need feel threatened to pay full attention for 60 minutes… and the playoffs are months away.
    They respond when pushed.

    • cliffkoroll

      Hmmm… I don’t think this is what CORSI, or Keith’s PDO, is telling us.