• cliffkoroll

    Good game day links. ’5 by the #s’ is excellent for an ‘official’ write-up (Verdi?)

    Momentum. Ha!

    Certainly the intersection of advanced stats and social justice wants to see the Avs burn with the heat of 1,000 suns. I’d like to see them lose for hockey reasons.

    • Z-man19

      those hockey reasons being?

      • cliffkoroll

        Not looking ahead here, this is all hypothetical of course, but supposing the Hawks advance, Minnesota is, IMO, a much preferable second round opponent.

        • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

          They also do not have Patrick Roy

        • zacked

          I don’t know, any team that can only manage 12 shots in an entire game doesn’t seem so scary…

          • Korab22

            Also not looking ahead, but home ice is always nice.

          • ChicagoNativeSon

            Funny how we went from doom to “not looking ahead” though in a few days though.

          • XMF

            Heh.

          • cliffkoroll

            We? Mouse in your pocket?

          • Korab22

            I refuse to see or acknowledge any irony in your comment and will continue to not look ahead. Hear that Hockey Gods.

          • rhodes

            Minnesota doesn’t have Varlamov.

      • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

        Patrick Roy

        • XMF

          This x 1,000 (suns).

        • Waylon

          and the woman beater.

    • Accipiter

      I believe it was written by gmh (Emerald Gao).
      IIRC, someone here mentioned that.

  • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

    Hossa-Sharp have ZERO goals in 39 SOG combined. Both end this tonight.
    .
    As for “momentum” if you equate this term to “real time insitu confidence with a mind set of we can win”, the Hawks gots that. As for any sort of magical stat thing that suddenly makes you better and the other not not so much so, well no. It is not “TWTW” it is a stead fast confidence which IS essential to being a winner over the term (note: not just winning, or to win every game, or even THE winner, but to be A winner), just like being totally defeatest will make a team a heaping waste basket of excrement for the term.

    • Sparky_The_Bard-barian

      They say don’t worry about a drought if you’re still getting your chances, and they are.

    • XMF

      A good juxtaposition here could be Saad, who isn’t getting a ton of chances. Based on CNS’s statements and data, I think Saad is failing to create his own opportunities.

      Sharp and Hoss continue to get chances which, for me at least, signals that they are simply not finishing or have hit a small streak of ‘bad luck’ (cringing at intangible…). Sharp hit about 1000 posts last year and people in the meathead lobby were calling him ‘finished’. Posts mean they’re beating the netminder. This is what I rest my head upon.

      “And He said ‘Oh, shall the floodgates open. And His greatness shall destroy the hopes of many an NHL Stanley Cup aspirant. Statues will be erected in His honor and His worshiping multitudes will genuflect and rejoice at the opulence raining from the heavens in the Holy Month of June.’” (Hossa 3:16)

      • SuperHawk27

        Not only that but Hossa has been dominant during stretches and has had the puck either jump his stick or roll on him preventing from even shooting the puck. A couple lucky bounces FOR Hossa should change his conversion rate.

        • XMF

          Carried the team from January through March. Dude was God.

          • SuperHawk27

            What do you mean “was God”? Hossa will smite thee for said blasphemy….

          • VerStig

            Yeah was gonna say. “Was”?

            You disappoint me, XMF.

          • XMF

            There’s a line for that. It’s long and stretches around the block.

      • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

        “Bad Luck” sure, bad timing. All stats have ebbs and flood (or ebb and flow if you prefer). If they are still the same skilled players we know they are and STL is just not total and incredulous masters at allowing them to average 9+ shots a game but stop them all, eventually the “flood” will return.
        .
        Saad however, yeah, he is not doing himself any favors in the offensive zone, but I am not going to totally complain about his defensive effort, though it could be a little better as well.

        • XMF

          Kid is learning. Sophomore year is tough for many players. I still think he’s going to explode. Let’s play Minnesota next round. Saad seems to enjoy playing the Wild.

          • ballyb11

            His “strides” look very similar to Hossa’s.

          • XMF

            Gaad is the son of God.

    • ballyb11

      Not sure its’ definition or even if it’s the the correct word, but the Hawks had it for weds entire game except for the last two minutes of the 2nd and the first 13 or so minutes of the 3rd. And they had it big time.

  • Sparky_The_Bard-barian

    Av’s had twelve shots on goal in the…… ?

    In the whole game?

    • Preacher

      And I think they only broke double digits in the last flurry in the final minute or two when they pulled their goalie AND had a powerplay at the time. I think they had 8 shots total heading into that.

      • zacked

        Yup, they had 8 until a 6 on 4 to end the game. Hilarious.

  • Sparky_The_Bard-barian

    So…. *If* you are StanBo, and *If* you have to make a decision this off-season…

    Smith or Morrin?

    • SuperHawk27

      Smith

    • XMF

      I don’t think it’s an either/or but if it were, it’s nearly impossible to dismiss Smith at this point, no?

      • Sparky_The_Bard-barian

        Or would you trade Shaw and sign both?

        We still need to sign a backup G for next season, too.

        • XMF

          That’s a good question. Obviously, Shaw brings more at this point than Morin does for what the Hawks do and how they do it, especially from Q’s point-of-view. As they look to examine cap space, maybe they do deal Shaw. But Morin, as much as I like his offensive upside and what he brings to a line, is still largely unproven. I’d keep him, of course, but I think the jury on Morin’s future as a bottom six forward is still out for Q.

        • Preacher

          Would find it hard to see Shaw getting traded at all. Too much a part of this team now. Morin “could” be good, but we haven’t really had a chance to see him play enough.
          #smallsamplesize/Bolligeffect

      • bizarrohairhelmet

        Depends on how much he costs since his league minimum contract is up. He’s RFA so that helps but what are the chances some other team sees the $632k QO and ups it considerably?

        • XMF

          Fair to middling? He’s certainly much more valuable after a full season of above average play. He’s got some fans among the GM pool, I suppose.

        • VerStig

          I have to believe that in the long-run he’s going to be better value for money than Morin. Skill-players like Morin are hard to come by (offense is hard?) and could command a premium, while in my mind Smithy’s already proven himself and been given the ice time with the ‘Hawks to match. Not to mention there’s no question of fit in the bottom-6 (and some promise as a short-term fill-in at 2C). I keep Benny, hands down.

          • zacked

            In the short term though, I bet Morin signs for <$700k, and Smith will probably go over $1m. He's on his 3rd contract, Morin is on his 2nd.

          • XMF

            I guess that moves us back to the Bollig contract and Sam’s post on StanBow being a bit over the moon. Sam’s point, to me, was solid at the time though it brought great consternation to certain factions of the Commentariat. The money on Bollig and Khabi sort of kicked us in the junk.

    • The Other One

      Both – the Hawks are fine, cap wise. I’m guessing Smith gets the same contract as Bollig and Morin gets Smith’s old contract (two by $700K +/- with the second year as an NHL salary). Besides, they’re RFA’s and no one is going to poach them.

  • SuperHawk27

    Why would it be tough to play in another teams arena? Is the ice different there? Is it actually made of Meth? Other than last change for the home team, what are the true Home Ice Advantages?

    • Preacher

      Last change, stick down second at the dot (affects someone like Zus quite a bit apparently), and the refs being swayed by the crowd (this is a known statistical fact–Sports Illustrated verified it a few years ago). Plus, the stats guy at the rink always gives his team more HITS! on the game records than is accurate. THAT is an absolute killer as we all know!

      • SuperHawk27

        Oh yeah, forgot about the faceoffs. Luckily half the fans in St. Louis are going to be Hawks fans so that leaves Faceoff’s and Last Change. I like our chances, but we’ll see.

        • Preacher

          And just for fun, here’s one link to the “referee’s are the MAIN reason for hometeam advantage” argument:

          http://www.thefixisin.net/homefield.html

          • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

            After reading this, not the book it references mind you., they had the result already (Home team is biased for) and then found the data they wanted to support it they do not explore the other possibilities that may also effect the “variables” they cite supporting their apparent pre-determined conclusion, or show how in the end the only option that can or most reasonable fit a mydrid of results is bias. I read “Home Team gets ~2 min more PP time per gave on average, therefore it is biased to the home team”. Now it may very well be, but could it also be other factors as well, such as playing from behind or with the lead, etc…

          • SuperHawk27

            Playing from behind(phrasing) or with the lead doesn’t have much weight in calling penalties IMO, which is what the article and book determined. What it doesn’t say is whether the PP’s actually result in a goal or win. Since it’s no maff friday I’ll just leave it at that.

          • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

            I will need to see that score effect does not also effect penalties, because I do not buy it. I see more break-aways when playing behind which results in more hooking-tripping-INT calls by the eye test.
            .
            I am Boycotting no maths Friday!

          • SuperHawk27

            Are we allowed to make vague references to math?

          • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

            More Breakaways against due to defenseman pinching

          • XMF

            You can’t boycott No Math Friday. It’s in the damn by-laws. Check the guide. You’re in violation. I demand reciprocity.

          • Fleshrifle

            Reciprocity is a math function. Burn him..he’s a witch!!

          • Preacher

            “She turned me into a newt!”

          • XMF
          • VerStig

            I didn’t read them as having a pre-determined conclusion, rather just the fact that the home team has historically won more (55% in the case of the NHL).

            You are right though, that there could be other underlying causes of the extra PP time, although I don’t think it’d be any sort of score effect (since that’s more a result than a cause). But something like travel and tired teams taking more penalties is certainly possible (and difficult to isolate from bias as a variable).

          • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

            Score effect was just really an off the top of my head example, could it be any number of things? Travel and Schedule could, I think score effect can, not huge in itself but when combined with others can influence as well.

          • Preacher

            What would “verify” their conclusions (about ref bias) would be to look at games at the college and high school levels. And I didn’t see them as having a predetermined outcome. They did check many other factors. I have not read the book, though I did read a much longer excerpt.

          • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

            IDK if the book was pre-concluded, the quick article seemed to be “Refs are biased, see this stat, it proves it.”
            .
            As for what would “verify” it. The easiest would be refs just saying, well that ain’t happening.
            From there no one stat or circumstance will prove it. It would have to be the collection of all removing the noise (any factor that can effect when a penalty is called, specifically minor penalties) and showing the only thing left is the refs consistantley across the spectrum have this bias that causes any bias that may remain.
            .
            It needs IMO to be specifically the amount of minor penalties not penalty minutes. Major and Misconduct penalties are two situationally different and apparent bias in those toward Home-Away is probably going to be removed aor significantly reduced because how-when-why they are called, minors are more “what did I just see while the play is going on?”, Majors not so much.
            .
            And then the result needs to be statistically significant. If it ends up in 10 seconds per game (based on minors) that is insignificant since on the NHL average it would require 60 home games at a 20% PP to result in 1 net goal, which is more games than are played. Even at 30 seconds per game will result at 20% PP, 1 goal every 20 Home games or 2 a season per team.

      • ballyb11

        Cute re “hits”.

      • berkley

        I know it’s a big deal in basketball where possession is timed, but I was wondering Wednesday if it translates to hockey: what about the clock operator?

        Late in regulation, Hawks pressing, clock constantly stopping on STL icing calls, looking to accumulate a few extra seconds for a late offensive zone faceoff, so the UC operator hits it the slightest bit earlier on a hybrid icing call?

        • DJ

          During the playoffs, the “minor officials” — the goal judges and the timekeepers — are from cities not involved in the series in question.

    • zacked

      I think teams deliberately play differently at home. You always hear about “playing a road game”, it’s possible that they play sub-optimally on the road.

      • VerStig

        It does seem the standards are lower — like how sustaining a flurry in the 1st period can be called “a good road period,” when objectively it’s basically playing like crap.

  • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

    Here are some numbers
    73.5%
    50.7%
    56.0%
    59.4%
    50.0%
    What are these???
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Marcus Kruger 5v5 stats
    Defensive Zone Starts%
    Corsi For %
    Fenwick For %
    Shots For %
    Goals for %

    • SuperHawk27

      Those numbers are really good considering the 73.5% D-zone starts. He is flipping the ice a lot.

      • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

        Very much so

      • Preacher

        But isn’t it because Bollig is on his line?

        • ChicagoNativeSon

          Basically, TMFF just repeated 3 stats which are very similar: CF, FF, and SF. And the sample size for GF% is this: 1 goal for, 1 goal against.

          Interestingly, Bollig’s numbers aren’t that dissimilar, except for GF% (0 for, 2 against), but Kruger has had the benefit of a .923 on ice Sv% and Bollig’s is .833.

          Also 5v5 TOI:
          Kruger: 8.4 mins
          Bollig: 6.1 mins

          Seems to me we need to start complaining about Kruger in the lineup if he can’t crack 10 mins at EV.

          • zacked

            I know you’re just being snarky, but when the team is taking 10 penalties a game that’s going to drastically reduce the EV time for the PKers. (Since the remaining EV time will go to the better lines, especially those not on the kill). Bollig only plays at EV now, Kruger is getting plenty of time overall.

          • ChicagoNativeSon

            Yes, just being snarky. The sample sizes are so tiny that it’s easy to find something to pick and choose from to make almost any player look good or bad, so a good example of this bias is Bollig.

            If those stats were for Bollig who’s also only getting 4.9% of his starts in the offensive zone, I doubt anyone would comment “He’s certainly flipping the ice a lot.”

            And one bad bounce or save can be the different between say 33% and 66% in some categories. And one good or bad possession can make a difference of 5% or more in a 4th liner’s CF, FF, or SF.

            Not saying Bollig has been solid, just that advanced stats don’t help too much in sorting the wheat from the chaff after only 4 games.

          • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

            Well, all that about Bollig is because Seabrook sucks!

          • ChicagoNativeSon

            Agreed. And you don’t need stats to tell you that!

            Or so I’ve learned, but Morin’s a completely different case. With him you need stats because the eye test tells you nothing.

          • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

            Morin has trouble with the Curve

          • Accipiter

            Like Tarasenko’s SH%.

          • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

            50% is 50% CNS, dangit!!! who cares if it is only 2 goals, “what difference does it make”?
            Sure they are similar (CF-FF-SF) they SOG is also nearlly 9% higher than CF, they are getting more shots to the net when total shots at net are about equal (defensivley they are clogging the shooting lanes too), and the fact they are all >50% when D-Zone starts is nearlly 3 of 4 is impressive. It was meant to showcase, Frogger is good!

          • rhodes

            As goes Bollig, so go his line mates. At least Q has found a way to get Smith more involved outside of the 4th line. I think playing Kruger only 8.4 minutes is leaving opportunity on the bench. He’s got to find a way to get him more involved, too.

            Or am I wrong about Kruger’s low TOI being related to Q not trusting Bollig in key games?

          • ChicagoNativeSon

            Maybe, maybe not? I think it’s mostly a case of Q simply playing his top 3 lines more since all of the games have been close and Hawks were down in the series for 3 games.

            And more of an indictment of Handzus’ struggles on the 2nd line than any Q statement about Bollig imo.

    • chidiver

      Whoa, whoa, whoa…..no math Friday!

      • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

        Don’t worry, it is Saturday in Japan.

        • Joe Banks

          That’s why he used an abacus!

  • ballyb11

    Vegas has the Hawks as underdogs tonight. — +120 / -130, whatever that means.

    • XMF

      It means Vegas is stupid.

      • ballyb11

        Ha.

        Yep, that’s how the build those $1,000,000,000 hotels.

        • XMF

          Exactly. Skew the odds, skrew the bettors, make money to build structures to keep em coming back for more.

          • Bob in EP

            “I’ve discovered the perfect business: people swarm in, empty their pockets, and scuttle off.”
            -M. Burns

        • rhodes

          It means the bettors are stupid. Vegas just takes its vigorish and moves on. THAT’s how they build those $1B hotels.

        • Waylon

          the base calculus never changes in the end – the house wins, always.

    • mazer_rackham

      Probably based off the fact that in the western conference so far the home team is 15-1

      • ChicagoNativeSon

        Home ice doesn’t matter. JUST ASK THAT WISE GUY CLIFF KOROLL.

        • ballyb11

          Ask this entire blog pre 4/17/2014.

          • roadhog

            I contended that it didn’t matter, and these playoffs are making me look the fool.

          • ballyb11

            You’re man enough to admit it.

            Where are the rest of you?

          • Accipiter

            I still don’t think it matters.

          • ballyb11

            Absolutely shocking.

        • cliffkoroll

          If you want to dust off your failed statistical arguments from a couple years ago in this regard, be my guest.

          Home team is 6-9 in the East this year.

          • roadhog

            West only has one road win though, correct?

          • cliffkoroll

            That’s what mazer said. Look at the Hawks series: has this been a case of the home team being the better team?

          • roadhog

            No. Tight games, OTs in our series. Plus, small sample size. This year the west is giving the appearance that home ice matters, while the east is looking the other direction. I’d argued previously that home ice can only matter if a series goes 7 games . . . and several series could be heading to a game 7. Still, small sample, and only half the league.

          • ChicagoNativeSon

            Not really a matter of who’s been the “better team” because that’s the main point of the argument: Home ice might be more important than simply being the better team. What’s important is simply “who won?”

            And my argument was hardly a failure imo. You chose to attack it from a different angle and by your method it wasn’t as significantly important.

            Anyhow, your stats mean nothing to me, cuz I’m going rogue with the eye test on this one. You’re just not seeing what I’ve been seeing. If necessary though I will use all caps and small samples like 15-1 to illustrate your naivety. And I’m sure you didn’t even consider the fact that home teams play with more heart and determination than visitors.

          • bizarrohairhelmet

            Home teams are also playing closer to their battle reservoirs, which we all know Bettman mandated to be installed 200′ below the Home team’s arena. This allows home teams to fill up their battle cylinders faster and more often while away teams can only bring as much battle as they can fit in their NHL-approved battle buckets.

          • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

            I think the analysis of Home-Away in the Playoffs needs to be started anew this season, because of the change in format. It is no longer 1v8-2v7-3v6-4v5. It may or may not change it, it will take a couple season to see if changes things, and if it does it may lend itself to more or less credence on Home Ice advantage.

          • ChicagoNativeSon

            True

          • ballyb11

            Yes.

      • Accipiter

        Never mind that. In the CHI – STL series, it’s the team who scores the 1st goal that has the advantage.

        • mazer_rackham

          It has also become apparent that if I drink out of my Blackhawks cup in the hours preceding a game that the Hawks will come out flat. The influence my Blackhawks boxers have on a game is still being debated in scientific circles.

  • Joe Banks

    I just have one word to say…
    BEN FREAKIN SMITH!

    • DesertHawk

      3. You have 3 words to say.

      • AF_Cheddarhead

        Isn’t counting math?

        • DesertHawk

          No Math Friday go blown way out the window long before I got here.

  • Joe Banks

    Oh, and another thing…
    FUCK THE BLUES!

  • Preacher

    And Mike Keenan.

  • berkley

    “It should’ve been a blowout. But it wasn’t, at least not on the scoreboard …
    The Wild…thoroughly outplayed the Avalanche … but the play of Colorado goalie Semyon Varlamov was the only reason this game was as close as it was …. As a team, the Avalanche was held to 12 shots on goal.”

    That PHT game recap must have written itself. I’d love to be the Avs beat guy, you’d write one recap, change team names and the result and you’ll have articles for the whole season.

  • rhodes

    Why not these lines?

    10-19-81
    28-16-88
    29-65-20
    23-26-52

    Versteeg and Zus to 4th line duty with Punchy McBoatanchor. Pull Zus out for PKs. How am I nuts? /not rhetorical

    • XMF

      Bickell looks good on the first line. I wouldn’t tinker. Q likes Zus on the second right now.

      • roadhog

        Yep, Bicks on the first, at least until blender time, I really don’t see that changing. As for Zus/Steeg/Smith . . . I could see changes being made, but I don’t have access to Q’s Tarot stack.

        • XMF

          I like it. I was anticipating the re-awakening of Travis and he sure does look much more dangerous now.

          • roadhog

            I’d kill to borrow Bick’s wrister for just one of my Beer League games. I don’t know if it’s the quick release, or how quickly he shifts his weight, or the tune of his stick, but it’s an absolute laser.

          • Accipiter

            It’s practice.

          • roadhog

            And genetics.

          • Korab22

            So that goal you scored the other night – greasy? Sick wrister? Dangle? Tap in into an open net? Sorry…but empty netter?

      • YoAdrienne

        Yep. And, Q has no problem moving Smith up into center later in the game, when he needs the speed. He has done it for at least the last two games. Example A: Kane’s OT goal, which had #28 centering him and Saad.

        That’s the thing about lines. They’re not set in stone, and Q has no problem adjusting them. I think he’s been mostly doing a pretty good job of it. That being said, I don’t understand his infatuation with Bollig…

        • XMF

          Yeah, Q’s history has always been ‘lines and then some other lines’. It seems that he’s confident in his own ability to assess on the fly what could work in certain situations. I like that mindset aside from hockey and Q sort of proves its worth in the right hands inside hockey as well. It probably gets honed over many years. Maybe Q found a magic key.

    • Preacher

      Smith and Kane seemed to have something special going. I’d expect to see them together sooner rather than later.

      • rhodes

        Yes, and Kruger and Smith have a bit of mojo. Could be a mean little line.

  • CozBullsFan

    No math Friday?

    • roadhog

      I’m only commenting in vagaries and intangibles today, because. There is some math down below, and even a no math boycott and a reading of the bylaws threat- provided XMF can find the pizza box.

    • XMF
    • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

      Nothing to see here, just don’t look beyond here!

      • roadhog

        . . . as he casually slips his abacus under the table . . .

  • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

    More Maths on Friday!!!
    .
    The winner of tonight’s game has a distinct statistical advantage in the series!!
    http://www.whowins.com/tables/up32.html

    • cliffkoroll

      In related math news, thew probability of winning one of two coin flips is 75%.

      • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

        WAT!!!!

      • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

        I swear, my sarcasm emitter must be fucking broken!

      • Bullitt315

        And the probability of winning two of two coin flips is 25%

        • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

          Which happens to be 5 times the highest number ever counted to by a STL fan!

    • XMF

      Everyone sucks and I hate the world.

      • Bannerman

        Makes me glad to be a nobody

  • roadhog

    Silly Math Friday- because 60% of the time it works every time.

  • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

    I just noticed,
    I have not seen any “Comment by DTM-SD-BL-MHS-TCC-MS blocked” things today!
    .
    And the fans rejoiced!!!

    • roadhog

      No troll Friday?

      • Accipiter

        It’s early …

        • roadhog

          Like scoring an early first period goal though . . .

        • Z-man19

          ‘cip, the troll sniffer

    • YoAdrienne

      Seemed to be absent yesterday, too. Don’t think that will last tonight…

      • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

        I hope it does, it means the Hawks won!

    • bizarrohairhelmet

      There are a few candidates teetering on the edge of hushness.

      • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

        WTF did I do!!!!

        • Accipiter

          Math.

          • http://www.our-founding.com/ Toews makes funny faces

            Oh, that is okay then!

          • roadhog

            Where is that damn pizza box?

        • bizarrohairhelmet

          you thought of something that could never possibly destroy us

  • roadhog
    • CozBullsFan

      Someone is a lurker.

  • roadhog

    I think we need more Colaiacovo!

    http://i.imgur.com/xglyi.gif