• redkoolaid

    I’m SHOCKED that the coach that tripped the pee wee player is from Vancouver. Absolutely SHOCKED.

    • raditzzzz

      im surprised he didn’t just waive a white flag

      • Preacher

        Or trip the kid and then light him on fire. (Oh, wait, only people from Oregon do that.)

    • rhodes

      Actually, I’m thinking the Vancouver kid embellished.

      • Joe Banks

        Sedin got called for embellishing last night – was he ever pissed!

    • Joe Banks

      It is a poser, isn’t it?

  • DaveM36

    Not Hawks-related but knowing the music interests of this blog, thought it might interest (but certainly not surprise) some of you that Scott Weiland was fired from Stone Temple Pilots.

    http://loudwire.com/stone-temple-pilots-officially-fire-scott-weiland/

  • Chesterfield King

    Montador is skating today, apparently

    • justforkicks

      with the team, sor still no contact, b/c he’s been skating for some time already w/ olesz

  • 334Rules

    Slow clap for Tomo-Kop!

  • DesertHawk

    Awww old Hawks :D. Kop got a Gordie Howe, and a regular hat trick in that I think, impressive game. Would be incredibly frustrating to be a player in that game I’d think and watch your lead just get eaten away. Good to see they powered through and won anyway.

    • CozBullsFan

      He also had a Kopecky hat trick. Whiffed on a shot, fell down, and lost his helmet. Granted, that’s almost a given for Kop every night. It’s part of what endeared him to SCH.

  • raditzzzz

    excellent article on mac carruth and his record breaking year in portland:

    http://blackhawks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=657597&navid=DL|CHI|home

    • Joe Banks

      Go Big Mac

  • TheFullAmonte

    Did Wiz ever get anything from the league for trying to chop Shaw’s biscuits in half with his stick?

    • Joe Banks

      Don’t think so…

    • justforkicks

      nope.

    • Accipiter

      A broken right foot. Out 4-6 weeks.

    • Country_Bumpkin

      Regarding discipline, nothing I’ve heard but the Karma train did roll over his foot.

  • justforkicks

    ChiTribHamilton
    Corey Crawford will start in goal for #Blackhawks against #Blues on Thursday.

    ChiTribHamilton
    #Blackhawks center Dave Bolland won’t play against the #Blues.

    • Joe Banks

      No Bolly? Oh bother… I wonder how long this is going to go.

      • justforkicks

        TramyersCSN
        Q: “Bolland’s progressing. Hopefully he gets on the ice the next couple of days. He’s improving every day.” #Blackhawks

        Of course Q has been saying this since he first sat =(. dnw bolly concussed or hurt otherwise and also dnw him coming back early if that is the case.

  • steeg of their own

    TomoKop is not supposed to score actual hat tricks, something is clearly wrong with the universe.

  • http://twitter.com/ChiNativeSon ChicagoNativeSon

    http://hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1462

    I pretty much agreed with everything in that article above that Chi linked to yesterday. Interesting sample size the author used though for Crow’s career high point. The .931 EV Sv% from 2010 was for 1 game.

    As I mentioned last season, the bright side was that Crawford’s EV Sv% was a respectable .915 (even though he often looked like hot garbage) and the season before it was .924. League average at even strength is around .920.

    This year his overall Sv% is being propped up by his league leading .962 PK Sv%. Emery is actual outperforming Crow at EV. It isn’t a huge stretch to think Crawford can continue at a reasonably high save rate as long as the PK continues to shine.

    • cliffkoroll

      If you haven’t read the link yet, do so. Now.

      • Accipiter

        I am almost certain CNS read it.

        • Z-man19

          nice

        • cliffkoroll

          one of these days Alice…

    • putmeinthemadhouse

      Behind the net doesnt allow you to look at team PDOs side by side does it
      ? I don’t feel like compiling and averaging every teams numbers to make my own list is there a place that does that?

      • http://twitter.com/neo873 Neo
        • cliffkoroll

          Hey Neo,

          great link. I used this to test a suspicion of mine, viz.: the 2009-10 Hawks did NOT have karma on their side. Does a PDO of 988, #26 in the league, support that intuition?

          • http://twitter.com/neo873 Neo

            PDO uses league generic numbers to get an estimate. Once you have a years worth of data you can start to look at that particular team’s actual results. The “luck” in the playoffs then becomes significantly higher numbers in the post season compared to the regular season.

            Fenwick
            57.79/1st Season
            55.44/2nd Playoffs

            Shooting percentages
            9.4/10th Season
            11.1/3rd Playoffs

            Save percentages
            90.1/26th Season
            90.5/9th Playoffs

            Yes, the Hawks were 26th in PDO mostly because of their goalie play. Neither their save or shooting percentages are outside of the league’s “bell curve.”

            During the playoffs they had a better shooting percentage than their season average. So maybe a little luck there. Not Flyers level luck, though.

            The goalie play was very similar, playoffs to season.

            Most people would say the Hawks won outshooting their opponents and in spite of their goalies. Wouldn’t say the Hawks had any real “luck” on their side, though the increase in shooting percentage didn’t hurt.

          • cliffkoroll

            Thanks guys. Not sure I really understand it yet, but this is helpful. Gotta get my shit together, lest some asswipe come along and call me ‘obtuse’ or something.

            Still not exactly grokking how you draw the line between skill and luck. This year, for example, we say the goaltending has been great, but, at the same time, my eye test tells me the Hawks haven’t suffered many (any?) fluky goals against- pucks off skates or defensemen’s legs etc, which seem to have plagued this team in all recent years. Add 3 or 4 of these through 19 games and the GAA jumps by 0.2 and the GAA goes down by 0.01.

            So what am I to make of this PDO pattern for the hawks for this year and the three previous years: 1028, 991, 1001, 988?

            CNS- I just looked back at 2009-10. Holy shit, Huey was terrible- just as I recall. But Nemo was average (good team defense, yes, but 7 SO in 35 starts) so, going into the playoffs, ‘second worst goaltending in the league’ is not an apt characterization, IMO.

          • http://twitter.com/ChiNativeSon ChicagoNativeSon

            In terms of EV Sv%, Niemi was equal to last year’s Crawford. Both were .914 at even strength.

            Among goalies with at least 30 games that season (Niemi had 35), Nemo was ranked 26th. Compared to starting goalies only (those who started at least half their team’s games), Niemi was ranked 24th. In playoffs, Niemi was 9th among the 16 starting goalies.

            Huet actually had a EV Sv% over .900 (and I think .899 overall) until that last fateful night. Almost completely identical to Emery’s numbers from last season.

            That’s how good the Cup team was. They won with last year’s goaltending.

            And people thought bringing Huet back last season was a terrible idea. Look what a little luck – er, I mean a total overhaul of his game and a COMPLETELY different defensive system – has done for Emery this year. <—- (sarcasm, blinking in neon lights)

          • cliffkoroll

            You always gotta overdo it don’tcha. You’re construction is just weasly enough that you don’t come out and say that Crow last year was as good as Niemi in 2009-10, but you’re strongly hinting in this direction. As you’ve pointed out before, only the starting goalie really matters come playoff time. Sometimes, some good old-fashioned stats can bring one back from the edge of statistical nonsense. Damn, hard to tell these two apart:

            GAA
            Sv%
            Record
            Shutouts

            2.25
            0.912
            26-7-4
            7

            2.72
            0.903
            30-17-7
            0

          • http://twitter.com/ChiNativeSon ChicagoNativeSon

            “They won with last year’s goaltending.” Not sure how I was only hinting?

            GAA is a product of the team/shots faced. Niemi faced 3.5 fewer shots per game. Adjusted for those shots, even using overall Sv% (which you know I’m not a fan of), that would bring his GAA up to 2.56.

            Record is a terrible metric for goalies.

            Shutouts with similar Sv%’s: would you rather have a goalie who gave up 0 one night and 4 the next, or one that consistently gave up 1 to 3? I don’t personally put much weight in shutouts.

            Basically Niemi was better on the PK, which is heavily influenced by the team in front of the goalie and luck.

            Who cares right? We’ll both take this year’s Crow (knock on wood).

          • http://twitter.com/neo873 Neo

            Personally, I don’t make any effort to distinguish between luck and skill. The Blues were “lucky” that Elliot had a career year last season. What exactly does that mean?

            I look more for deviation and sustainability. And more from the individual players standpoint than for each team. When comparing players, how much impact does the variance in goalie save percentage have on that player? Same with linemates shooting percentages?

            On an individual basis how much variance is there between a players shooting percentage and his career numbers? When you get 4 or 5% than it probably isn’t sustainable. Anything more than .05 difference for the goalies are questionable, as well.

            Kane’s, Hossa’s and Sharp’s numbers in particular are probably going to regress more towards their career numbers. Kane is still “growing” so his career numbers are still “moving.” But you don’t expect that high of a jump from “skill” in any particular year. And you look at where the numbers are in the “bell curve” of the entire league. I’m not expecting 14-18% shooting percentages to continue. Not in this era of the league.

            As for goalies, better defenseman can (in the short term) change the ratio of quality shots to overall shots a goalie faces. Much more difficult to do that in the long term. Especially since opponents adjust and try to “make another pass” against good team defense. So good defenseman tend to lower “shots against” more than change the “shot quality ratio.” So over an entire season the goalie save% tends to be made up mostly from the goalies performance.

            So, yes, I am expecting the Hawks goalie numbers to go down. And I agree with CNS on the 2009/10 team (I know, what a surprise) . Hawks were “tops” in shot differential in 2009/10 so they could afford poorer goaltending. This team is “top thirdish” in shot differential at the moment and is probably top five by the end of the year. Still good but they need better goaltending than the 2009/10 team to be a serious contender.

          • http://twitter.com/ChiNativeSon ChicagoNativeSon

            And coincidentally, Hawks (as I’m sure you know) have been steadily climbing the Fenwick Close ladder, etc, since the first month. After the lopsided Corsi Edmonton game, they jumped to 3rd, and currently sit in 5th.

            http://behindthenet.ca/fenwick_2011.php?sort=127&section=close

            Also, the author of that hockey prospectus article really missed an opportunity when tried to show that teams that were most familiar with each other would perform best out of the gate. Two teams he cited were doing well and two team were struggling.

            If he would’ve instead pointed to their Corsi or Fenwick ratings, his point would’ve been indisputable. They’re all at the top of the league.

          • http://twitter.com/ChiNativeSon ChicagoNativeSon

            There is a HUGE misconception and misuse of PDO, even among the supposed “statheads.” Many look at 1000 as the baseline and declare that if you’re over, you’re lucky, and if below, unlucky. That’s an obtuse viewpoint IMO.

            In reality, teams with strong goaltending will typically have a PDO over 1000 and therefore appear “lucky” when they’re just good (at least in the goaltending department).

            So when some see the 2010 Hawks with a 988 PDO (5th worst in the league) they exclaim “This team was unlucky” when it’s complete bullshit. The Hawks actually had the 7th highest shooting percentage that season. So based on Sh%, the Hawks were actually slightly lucky, or possibly more skilled. (having a skilled team doesn’t necessarily translate into a higher Sh%, usually just a higher shot rate)

            On the other hand, they had the 2nd worst goaltending in the league. I still have a hard time wrapping my head around this: THE HAWKS HAD THE 2ND WORST GOALTENDING IN THE LEAGUE AND HAD 11 SHUTOUTS.

            Last year when Crow faltered, his EV Sv% was still better than Niemi’s in 2010. I don’t mean to take anything from Niemi – what he accomplished as a rookie was phenomenal – but some perspective is needed. That team was great to play behind. 11 shutouts with goaltending worse than last year’s!

            That team wasn’t unlucky. The goaltending just sucked. With quality goaltending, that team might have challenged some single season records. Instead they only finished 3rd in reg season points (coincidentally, to one of the luckiest teams in recent history, the Capitals).

            http://behindthenet.ca/WSH_2009.html

            tl;dr

          • laaarmer

            I like this analysis. I appreciate that you did it without blinding me with charts and lines of numbers. Anyway, the up arrow thingy has a 1 next to it now

  • Joe Banks

    According to SLGT, MacDonald and Steen were hurt in practice yesterday. Hopefully, they’ll be able to play tomorrow.

    • http://twitter.com/ChiNativeSon ChicagoNativeSon

      Apparently not a big deal. They gave the team an IQ test yesterday. Heard reports of a number of UBI’s, but most were preexisting conditions.

    • Country_Bumpkin

      Thought I saw on an NHL crawl that MacDonald was on IR and would be “week to week”.

  • justforkicks
    • DesertHawk

      We tore down that wall…

    • 10thMountainFire

      Must have been Frolik again.

    • Sparky_The_Barbarian

      Obviously his jock strap wasn’t all Panda deked him out of. (All joking aside, get well soon, Khabi).

      • DesertHawk

        Wonder if it was from the puck to the dome?

        • justforkicks

          only if his groin is in his head

          • Z-man19

            He wouldn’t be the first guy with that problem

  • Accipiter

    “Thoughts on Thoughts” is a feature that looks at Elliotte Friedman’s terrific weekly post “30 Thoughts.” Justin Bourne selects his 10 favourite tidbits, and elaborates. http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2013/02/26/thoughts-on-thoughts-nhl-realignment-still-needs-work/
    He had this one which I liked : “I know you know the Blackhawks have um, started well, but this is pretty crazy: if they go .500 the rest of the season – and remember, this is in a league that doles out loser points – they’ll finish with 64 points. Like, they’ve essentially clinched a playoff spot and are threatening to lock up home ice. They could go 9-20-0 on the way in and still get to last year’s playoff cut-off. To hell with anyone who isn’t floored by their 16-0-3 record.”

    • DesertHawk
      • Accipiter

        My link didn’t work ?

        • DesertHawk

          Twas not showing for me… disqus?

          • Accipiter

            The first time I posted it the link didn’t show, but I fixed it within a minute. I guess you have to refresh for the correction to show up on your end. You caught me editing.

          • DesertHawk

            Sounds aboot right.

          • Accipiter

            Hit refresh again.

          • DesertHawk

            Same to you boss.

          • Z-man19

            Can I stop hitting refresh now?

          • Z-man19

            Let me edit it, that’d be really cool

        • DesertHawk

          I’d delete mine, but all that’d do is remove my name.

          • Accipiter

            Just edit it and write something else.

    • DesertHawk

      I like his final thought, about Toews.

      • Accipiter

        They have a podcast (usually daily, not weekends). It is usually pretty funny.

        • birdhead

          and they LOVE Toews (for good reason) (who doesn’t). they’re a good time.

          It is hilarious how detailed their coverage of the Leafs is compared to any other team in the league, though. They’re pretty sure the Blackhawks powerplay is Toews-Kane-Hossa-Keith-Seabrook but are capable of spending quite a long time discussing Colton Orr’s TOI and linemates.

          • Accipiter

            I’m pretty sure they are all from Leaf land.

          • birdhead

            Yeah and they’re all Leafs fans except Bourne (to be fair to him, he doesn’t go on about the Islanders) but it’s still funny to me. The other general hockey podcast I listen to is Marek vs Wyshynski, and at least they, like, google lines before commenting.

    • Z-man19

      With the proposed realignment, I’m interested in how they are going to schedule the games. How many times are you going to play the teams in your conference? With the different numbers of teams in each conference, I don’t see how they can make it the same for each conference.

  • ballyb11

    Hawks have 1 player in the top 44 in points.

    • Accipiter

      Worryd ?

      • ballyb11

        They need more.

        And our goaltending will not hold up.

        • Accipiter

          “They will hold.”-Aragorn

          • Z-man19

            Until the 5th day, on the 5th day look to the east

        • DesertHawk

          I point you to the link below which states we could go 9-20-0 and probably still make the playoffs. Take some prozac bro…

          • ballyb11

            Already on it.

          • laaarmer

            They need to win more faceoffs, but I agree with the need for Prozak (that is the Russian version)

    • girlphoenix
    • DesertHawk

      They have 1 team in the top 1 in points though.

    • Z-man19

      But 4 in the top 56

    • birdhead

      they have the best goal diff in the league and are third in the league for GF.

      • birdhead

        And for the record, the Lightning have FIVE guys in the top 44 in points. They’re 9-9-1 for 19 points. IDK about you but I prefer the Hawks’ record.

      • laaarmer

        4th

        • birdhead

          I don’t doubt you but: http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20122013&sort=standingsGoalsFor&type=LEA am I misunderstanding something?

          • Z-man19

            Phiily scored 4 tonight, that page doesn’t account for it

          • birdhead

            Oh, OK, I thought they would be. Well, whatever, still pretty close.

          • Z-man19

            Philly game not technically over yet

          • laaarmer
          • Z-man19

            That’s GPG average not GF

          • laaarmer

            Sort by Total. It only shows 59 goals though. What the fuck is that! Is it 59 or 61?
            59/19=3.1
            61/19=3.21

            By the way It says only 34 GA too. What is missing here? What am I missing?

          • laaarmer

            If you win in the shootout, it counts as 1 goal doesn’t it?

          • Z-man19

            That could be your answer but I don’t know.

          • red palace

            Yep, I count 61 if the two SO win “goals” are included.

          • laaarmer

            They only count for standings. If anybody is using those for their STAT analYsis, I’m on to you.
            Oh, and they have allowed 3 goals in the shootout (for standings points). How many faceoff wins would it take to get those 3 points back and be “undefeated” for realz?

          • Z-man19

            Three

    • Paul the Fossil

      Actually 1 in the top 43; Hossa, Sharp and Toews are all part of a multi-way tie for 44th. But the point remains.

  • laaarmer

    Kesler out 4-6 weeks
    http://www.nhl.com/ice/blogpost.htm?id=14642&navid=nhl:topheads
    (Please beware: AV Video)

  • CozBullsFan

    Anyone watching the Kings/Scum game? It’s like they are playing at the UC. Puck bouncing everywhere.

    • Accipiter

      I wonder if they freeze the pucks enough/at all ?

      • CozBullsFan

        You usually don’t see the puck bounce this much at the Staples Center. Might be the ice. The pucks, and their freezing, are strictly monitored by the NHL officials. I doubt that would be the problem.

      • http://www.facebook.com/hair.helmet Hair Helmet

        Are they Hencho En Mexico? Are they Mexican Jumping Pucks?

    • robondacob

      i see a lot of complaints about the UC ice, but I don’t know what the specific reason is besides “it’s bad.” does the UC not freeze the ice enough? if so, why don’t they just freeze it properly?

      • CozBullsFan

        It has to do with them sharing the UC with the Bulls. It causes a lot of problems with the quality of the ice. It’s not unique to the UC. Other teams have the same issue. The Hawks management really hasn’t done anything to resolve the problem.

  • robondacob

    super clown shoes for the kings. didn’t really even threaten during the extended 5 on 3s

    • amontesawesome

      Let’s trade them Jamie Kompon for Drew Doughty.

  • red palace

    Hey Paul the Fossil, good post on FO%. I still haven’t figured out the forum access, so I’m going to put my comments here.

    To the extent that players who are better at face offs might be better overall hockey players, the team point total correlation you are finding is only partially explained by the FO%. To take an extreme example, put a team of Toewses against a team of Bollands. The Toewses will trounce the Bollands not just because they’ll win more face offs, but also because they’ll win more board battles, make fewer errant passes, etc etc.

    As for the “importance” of winning FOs on the PP/PK: of course, more goals are scored per minute on the PP than at EV, so a FO win with the man advantage can be considered more important in the sense that you have a greater likelihood of scoring on that possession since there is one less defender. But since much less time is spent at 5v4, face off wins there don’t make as much of a difference in the aggregate, in line with what your numbers indicate.

    As for a negative correlation between FOs and shots against (assuming you didn’t measure this backwards), I have no idea. Maybe if you were to include shoot out goals into your data, that might clarify everything…..

    • laaarmer

      Donkey kong!

    • Accipiter

      I hate to break it to you, but all the Toewses would be dead, courtesy of the Bollands.