Angry At Numbers

Haven’t done one of these in a while, and as the Hawks sit on the precipice of being halfway to another Grant Park Drunkening, seems like a good time to do it. Let’s get to it.


That’s the third line’s Corsi-percentage over the past two games. In case you’re new to us and/or these analytics, 55% would be considered dominant. Now, only one of those games did that line see heavy offensive zone starts, and last night their zone starts were pretty evenly split between the o-zone, neutral zone, and d-zone. That’s the third line. 3rd. #3. In case you want to know what separates the Hawks right now.


That’s the career goals currently on the Hawks’ third line. It doesn’t really mean much, it just makes me feel good to see.

89.3% – 81.6%

Thats’ the regular season save-percentage on the penalty kill, and the second is the SV% on the kill in the playoffs. Clearly, this is not the only way to look at the struggles of the penalty kill in the postseason, but it’s probably the biggest. What’s strange is that the Hawks give up less shots on the kill in the postseason, or at a lower rate, than they did in the regular season. It’s 49.9 per 60 in the playoffs, it was over 56 in the regular season. War On Ice doesn’t do a playoffs specific shot chart, so it’s hard to judge if they’re seeing better quality shots than they were in the regular season. As I try and drum up anything to be afraid of when it comes to Anaheim (and it’s a real struggle), their power play is the one I keep coming back to if the Hawks can’t straighten out the kill back to what it was, and it’s mostly on Crawford. The Ducks can’t hang with the Hawks at evens over seven games, but if they get a power play goal or two per game, they don’t have to.


That’s the gap between Duncan Keith’s Corsi-percentage for the playoffs and any other d-man that isn’t his teammate. That’s right, only Rozsival and Seabrook are anywhere near him, and that’s because they spend a lot of time playing with him. The last time Keith was this dominant in possession, and granted it’s only nine games so far, was 2010 when he took home his first Norris, a gold medal, and really should have walked away with a Conn Smythe as well. Looks like he might put that right this season.


Amount of goals against Hjalmarsson has been on the ice for this series. That’s easy when the other team only scores four, but still. Also, Hammer had two games against the Preds where he wasn’t on the ice for a goal against, Hawks won both of those as well. These things are probably not a coincidence.


  • WookRN

    Before this series, my thought was that the third and fourth lines would be the difference, since the wild have a nice couple top lines. Granting that we are seeing scoring from the top six as well, this third line corsi and the eye test of what we’re seeing, at least defensivly from the fourth makes me feel good about the ducks.
    That and lets compare what we’re seeing against the wild, what the ducks are doing to the flame, and then what we think of the flame vs the wild. This is a wild team that put down the blues while we dropped the preds. Meanwhile, the press is making a big deal of the ducks going six and oh vs….the jets and a second round flame team that only had the nucks to tend to. The Ducks won’t be easy, but this far we’ve beat them two of three and outscored them eight to three.

    Nine to go….

    • JJNDadTo4

      Not just 8-3, Wook, but they only scored ONE goal in each game, the win being a 1-0 shutout.

      • WookRN

        True enough.
        Just saying, I feel pretty good about the match up, all things considered.

  • SAMCRO Outlaw

    I wish there was a comparison for this: change in number of times Hawks gained the offensive zone, only to pull up just inside the zone and turn the puck over at the blue line while stationary. It was a problem in the first series, but has been noticeably missing from their game in this series. I know the main culprit is not playing right now (can’t say his name & have Q go “oh yeah gotta get him in the lineup), but it was contagious throughout the lines. Their puck management has been very good and what we’ve become accustomed to. I like

  • Jim

    The fourth line was going out against the Wild first line sometimes yesterday, and having success.

    Now, I’m wondering if Q sat Vermette and TT against Nashville to “motivate” them? Or did he think they didn’t stack up well against Nashville? Or maybe he thought Versteeg and Nordstrom were just flat out better?

    Or, maybe Q didn’t want the Wild to have video on well constructed lines?

    Or, maybe Q wanted to be sporting, and take a handicap against Nashville?

    • Maybe he was just trolling us all… I’ll show them

  • To Saad be the glory

    One other zero is missing from this list that I think should be touched on. There are zero people still bitching about the Vermette trade.

    • WookRN

      In fairness, while I love his FO percent (especially in a line with Sharpie and TT, not exactly built to win the puck back on the boards, despite TT’s pretty stellar back pressure) I think part of this is that Q is finally using him in the rolls he should be in, instead of just tossing him out there and hoping he can score with Richards and Versteeg or who-ever that week.

      I think we all agree we’re happy this is turning out as it currently is…

    • ItNeverEnds

      While im not bitching about the trade, i would like to see Vermette shoot the puck a little more & stop trying to make those cutsie drop passes in the middle of the ice. He’s been better for sure, though, and his FO% is outstanding

  • tammorrow

    Good post. Sometimes I think it’s a good thing to step back and look at the numbers. Percentages can be tricky, though and the CF% is one that can get deceptive pretty quickly with a game or two analysis. While 63% is indeed impressive, at 55% Vermette’s line would have had a total of 5 shot attempts more than their opposing lines over two games. If he happened to have favorable starts in the O-Zone, then 55% would not be dominant, but instead becomes expected. And that is how it plays out with a 78% O-zone faceoff percentage. That line has been very good for sure which the 63% suggests, but it will probably irk some that it’s due in large part to Q putting them in the position to be very good.

    • tammorrow

      and to underline this point, line 3 was +2 in SAs with the even O-zone starts compared to +3 when they were heavily O-zone starts

  • Lemmy

    The PK struggles earlier this postseason were because Q/staff switched systems when Nordstrom was out. It didn’t work. They switched back to the 2 PK systems they used throughout most of the regular season.

    • skags

      Minus Ben Smith

      • ZigZags82

        Ehhh. I think it’s purely coincidence. I agree with the system being reestablished.

  • Bob Lanz

    Fucking hammer is the real deal, it’s why Stan matched San jose’s offer and signed him and rolled the dice on the goal tender situation. He is a legit top pair defender and hell of a shot blocker.

    • ZigZags82

      Scotty Bowman always valued the Dmen in front of the goalie, only as good as the guys in front of you

      • Sparky_The_Bard-barian

        That is the ‘Detroit’ model on which the Hawks are based.
        Deep Blue Line
        Two Way Forwards.
        ‘Good Enough’ goal tending.

    • To Saad be the glory

      In hindsight,Hammer’s contract is kinda cheap and Wilson possibly did did us a favor by having to let Niemi go.

    • Sparky_The_Bard-barian

      Hammer would be a top pair D man on almost any other team.

  • TitanTransistor

    Vermette has been such a great addition to this team. I’m starting to get sad about the fact there’s no way they can keep him 🙁

    • ZigZags82

      Literally perfect for what we like to do. Oh well, at least he’ll help the Hawks get the Cup, while we develop a young guy.

    • WookRN

      Nice to see Vermette and Richards being the hired guns we need for just this situation. Center depth. Toews, Richards, Vermette, Kruger, with TT and Tesjardins still being excellent two way players, despite being off on wing. Nice problem to have.

    • Oldfarthawkfan

      Weren’t you the one that said a first was too much for Vermette, and that they should of used it for Sekera, and that it was an overpay?

      • To Saad be the glory

        Yeah,he did,so what? Just because Vermette is doing well now doesn’t mean a 1st still wasn’t an overpay.

        • ZigZags82

          1st isn’t an overpay if you get a Cup out of it.

        • Oldfarthawkfan

          Because if someone doesn’t have the same opinion as he does his retorts are very condescending. I welcome numerous points of view, I do not walk on water without getting the bottom of my feet wet, I am frequently proven wrong. I just like it when all opinions are respected. Agreeably disagree, but demeaning to me is boorish

  • DestinyandBalance

    Those are great freaking numbers and make me feel genuinely confident…except maybe the last one. I love Hammer, but Craw deserves credit for that “0” not becoming a “1” (the breakaway where he tried and failed to pinch Parise at the blue line) and perhaps a “2” (turnover right in front of his own net) two nights ago. That said, he’s been on the ice a ton against the other team’s best players and has otherwise been awesome.

  • Sparky_The_Bard-barian


    The number of Goals Patrick Kane has.
    The number of Goals the Minnesota Wild has.